Thursday, September 13, 2007

 

NFL Season Preview

It seems like every year at this time I read Season Previews from the "experts" and I always seem to disagree with them and wonder how they could be so stupid. After that, I talk about how I can't wait to go back and look at their picks after the season ends and make fun of them. Then, four days later I've completely forgotten about the entire thing and I never go back and check their predictions to see how they did.

Well, I've decided this year is different. This year, I am rolling out my First Annual NFL Season Preview. Will there even be a Second Annual Season Preview? Probably not. So let's celebrate my first/last/only crack at projecting records for all 32 (I counted them) NFL teams, so that in 6 months we can come back, measure my ineptitude, and make fun of me for spending countless hours actually putting this together.

Before we move into the predictions, I would like to take a second to tell you how they were done. I actually went through the NFL Schedule, week by week, and "played" every game, keeping track of win-loss records. In order to keep some dignity, I will not inform you that I did this three times to make sure I was being consistent. I believe it was some time during my second "season" where my girlfriend walked in, looked at the stacks of books, magazines, papers, and the two computers on my desk, rolled her eyes, made a semi-audible comment about "playing imaginary football games" and walked out. To the best of my knowledge we are still dating.

On to the standings, presented in tiered-order...

Division Champs

New England (12-4)
They were a second half collapse away from the SuperBowl last year, so what did they do in the off-season? Completely reloaded and are now the runaway favorite in the NFL for this season. I don't even have anything else to add except that between the Patriots, the Red Sox, and now the Celtics adding Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, if I ever hear a Boston resident complain about ANYTHING, I am ambushing him with a sock full of pennies. By the way, this team almost went to the SuperBowl last year with Reche' Caldwell as their top receiver. This is very surprising, especially since Reche' Caldwell is terrible. Actually, Reche' Caldwell was so surprised at finding out he was a team's top WR, that his face is permanently stuck like this.

Baltimore (11-5)
I'm big on the Ravens this year. They were dominant at times last year, and if their offense doesn't crap the bed (at home) against the Colts last year they are in the AFC Championship. I think adding McGahee will be a big plus for them, and they also added some offensive line help. Even though they lost Adalius Thomas, they still have THREE linebackers who were named to the Pro Bowl last season. As of right now, I say Baltimore plays New England in the AFC Championship Game.

Indianapolis (11-5)
Has a team every looked more complacent after winning a SuperBowl? How do you just let your entire defense walk away after winning a ring? Jason David, Nick Harper, Cato June, Mike Doss, and Montae Reagor all left. Unless Peyton Manning is going to somehow play defense, they could be in trouble.

San Diego (11-5)
They went 14-2 and fired their head coach. That is not a typo. However, I almost agree with it because they are sending the message that they are not just settling for successful regular seasons. Marty Schottenheimer proved time and time again that he was a good enough coach to get you to the postseason, but not good enough to do anything while he was there. I think Tomlinson's numbers will drop, but look for Phillip Rivers' numbers to increase.

New Orleans (11-5)
I promised myself to not put them higher than 10-6, but then I said screw it and actually had them at 12-4 after one of my projections. I think they're fine right here though. The defense should be improved, and if the light bulb has gone on for Mr. Bush, well, a lot of defenses could be in trouble this year. I do think the NFC South will be a lot tougher division than some people are predicting, though.

Philadelphia (10-6)
I was going to put an asterisk after this prediction because if Donovan McNabb's knee cap explodes during week 5 then all bets are off. If he stays healthy I think they are as dangerous as any team in the NFC. You do have to hand it to Andy Reid, he puts a very good team on the field year after year. With exception of 2005 (the T.O./McNabb fiasco), the Eagles have made the playoffs and won at least 10 games every year since 2000.

Chicago (10-6)
The Bears make me want to throw up. No comments for them. Hopefully Lance Briggs doesn't get mad at this and try to run a Ferrari over me.Then flee the scene. Then report it stolen. Then say there was no alcohol involved.

St. Louis (9-7)
This division was extremely hard to pick. Especially since Seattle is always solid and San Francisco is on the rise as well. In the end, I gave the Rams the nod because I think adding Adam Carriker will help out with their run defense, and I think Stephen Jackson is the biggest difference maker in the division.

Wild Cards

Denver 11-5
I almost had them topping San Diego for the division and then I changed my mind. Even though they have the same record, I'm giving the tie-breaker to the Chargers, largely due to Denver starting a young, inexperienced QB. I think Travis Henry is going to be a huge addition for them if he can stay healthy and avoid jail time by continuing to pay child support to 9 different women. Losing Ebeneezer Ekuban was a blow, but since they added Jarvis Moss in the draft I believe they will be fine at DE. Adding Dre' Bly to play opposite Champ Bailey won't hurt either. Also, we should all know better than to underestimate how much devastation (Darrent Williams, Damien Nash) can help a team pull together.

Jacksonville (10-6)
Ah, my first sleeper of the day. Do you realize that even with all the Byron Leftwich commotion, they still went 8-8 last year, and that includes two losses to the Texans? If they beat the Texans, like they should have, they're 10-6 (I did the math). Giving the reigns to Garrard and finally getting Leftwich out of the picture will be a boost to the offense. Also, all those young receivers they have are entering years 2, 3, or 4, and that's usually when the light goes on for WRs.

Carolina (10-6)
The only question mark on this team is Jake Delhomme, and now that there is a competent back up, I think he'll step up his play. They have two good RBs to platoon with, and adding Dwayne Jarrett alongside Steve Smith is a good move as well. I thought Carolina had a really good draft, also adding Jon Beason, Charles Johnson, and Ryan Kalil, in addition to the before mentioned Jarrett. If they get consistent QB play, Carolina will be dangerous.

Seattle (8-8)
If Shaun Alexander is back in his usual form, they could be a team to be reckoned with. Let's not forget that last year they went to Chicago in the playoffs and basically had the Bears all but beat. That would have made the NFC Championship game in New Orleans. And now I'm mad at Seattle so I'm done with their preview. (I had hotel reservations and everything. I'm so mad right now.) [Seriously, I'm so aggravated I keep coming back to their stupid preview just to add stuff.]

Just Missed Out

Pittsburgh (10-6)
I think they'll have a good season and fall just short of postseason play. I think Roethlisberger will have a better year than last year and I look for Willie Parker to duplicated last year's rushing numbers. Also look for Santonio Holmes to have a break-out season. Did you realized that over the last 8 weeks of the season he had over 600 yards receiving? I also thought they had a very good draft, taking Lawrence Timmons to replace Joey Porter, and then adding LaMarr Woodley in the second round.

New York Jets (9-7)
While I think the Jets will be a good team this year, I think they will come up just short. I like adding Thomas Jones, and I think Darrelle Revis is going to be a stud one day, but I don't think they did enough to address one of their weakest areas: run defense. The Jets gave up an average of 4.9 yards per carry last year. In 16 games last year, the Jets held only two RBs under their season rushing average. I still think they will be solid, but I don't see them making the playoffs. While we're here, is watching Jets fans on Draft Day not one of the funnest things ever? However, I can relate because I acted in a similar manner in 2003 when the Saints traded up to the 6th pick, only to watch Tagliabue announce that we were selected some clown instead of Marcus Trufant. However, while I was correct on that pick, I was also upset when they selected Jammal Brown instead of Derrick Johnson. At the time I claimed that I should be the GM for the Saints. The Lesson: I shouldn't be the GM for the Saints.

Cincinnati (9-7)
9-7 is also the hours of night/early morning you should keep your doors locked if you live near a Bengals' player's home. While I like this team, they just have no defense. They are the 2004 Colts. Minus Peyton. Not a good combination. Though they are perceived as one of the better teams in the AFC, they have made the playoffs exactly once in the last 16 years.

Washington (8-8)
I think they'll be improved from last year. I still can't believe they beat the Saints in the Superdome, but I actually think that game worked in the Saints favor. They were dominant the next week and the rest is history. While we're talking about them, was anybody more impressive running the ball the second half of last season than Ladell Betts? And the thing that kills me is that during his 5 consecutive 100 yard games streak, he signed an extension to stay with the team. He would have been a free agent! He could have gone to Green Bay or New York and signed a big deal. Instead, he'll stay in Washington for less money to be a backup. Wow.

Detroit (8-8)
I see them much improved from a year ago, but not as much as Jon Kitna thinks (he has openly predicted 10 wins). You would think at some point he would look in the mirror or somebody would call him by his name and that would remind him that he is Jon Kitna, but I guess not. I will, however, make a prediction that he leads the NFL in passing yardage. He threw for over 4,200 yards last year. Add Calvin Johnson and now he's in Year 2 under Mike Martz so I think we'll see an increase in his production. While we're talking about Mike Martz, do you think he out thinks himself in other facets of life just like he does in football? For example if he's standing at a drink machine that costs a dollar, does he drive around town instead looking for the Wal-Mart Sam's Choice drink machine to try and save 25 cents?

Tampa Bay (8-8)
Obviously I think they'll be better than last year's team. I think adding Garcia helps out A LOT. While he isn't Drew Brees, he's not Bruce Gradkowski either. He will open up their offense and that will enable more production from Cadillac as well. I also liked some moves they made on defense, drafting Gaines Adams and signing Cato June in free agency.

San Francisco (8-8)
Despite the moves they made in the offseason, I still think they will come up short. They're in a pretty tough division with Seattle and St. Louis, and if Frank Gore remembers that he is Frank Gore and tears/breaks his (insert body part here), then their season is over. Frank Gore is Fred Taylor version 2.0.

Houston (8-8)
I almost put them at 16-0 just for karma reasons and to thank them for drafting some man named after an Italian plumber in last year's draft. Too bad Mario Williams can't eat mushrooms to grow taller or throw fireballs like the other Mario though, then he may have been worth passing on Bush. Well, on second thought, nah.

Not Quite There Yet

Dallas (7-9)
I'm not a huge Romo fan and I think he has an average year at best. I also think T.O. is getting old and that Julius Jones will no longer be a Cowboy after this season. I also don't think I'd trust a guy named Wade to run a lemonade stand, much less a professional football team. It's just not a name that demands respect. Which sounds more likely to happen: "Hey Wade, great game. You guys just won the SuperBowl!" or "Hey Wade, you forgot to put pickles on my hamburger, you idiot!" Thought so.

Green Bay (7-9)
Yes they finished 8-8 last year with 4 straight wins, but 2 of those wins were against the Lions and Vikings, plus the final win was against the Bears in a game that meant nothing to Chicago. While I don't think losing Ahman Green will kill them, he did have over 1,400 total yards of offense.

Buffalo (6-10)
I was definitely surprised when Buffalo didn't win more games than this in my "seasons." I think they will be a team that is improved from last year, and I think Losman is starting to come into his own. However, it's hard to win when you play New England twice, New York twice, Denver, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Philadelphia.

Oakland (6-10)
If you were to give a one sentence summary of Oakland last season, it would look like this: They signed Aaron Brooks and hired a guy away from running a bed and breakfast to coach him. How does that translate into this season? No where to go but up.

New York Giants (6-10)
They will go 6-10 this year and they will still play numerous prime time games and will still be talked about on ESPN constantly. This drives me insane. The only reason the Giants exist is so that ESPN has something to talk about when the Yankees and Red Sox are not playing. Heaven forbid they are ever a good team and win some games. That's the day we'll see the launch of ESPN 7: All Giants, All The Time

Not Even Close

Miami (5-11)
Quarterback? What? Why would we draft a quarterback? That makes no sense. What this team needs is a wide receiver with questionable wide receiver skills who can return the occasional kickoff or punt for a touchdown.

Cleveland (5-11)
Hey remember a few years ago when Jamal Lewis ran for like 500 yards against us? Yeah. Well, he's a free agent now. He'd be a great addition! So what if since then he's gone to jail and has been a shell of the player he once was! Also, I don't think it should be a red flag to us that his old team is our division rival, knows we are interested, and still has not made him an offer. Those guys are such idiots!

Side Note: My favorite Jamal Lewis story is when they asked defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau about him, and LeBeau said, "He's a dangerous guy. If he finds a little crack he's gone!" This was shortly after Lewis was arrested for cocaine distribution.

Kansas City (5-11)
Brodie Croyle was recently competing for the starting QB job. Awful team.

Arizona (5-11)
I actually don't think they'll be that dreadful. I thought they made some decent moves in the draft and in the offseason. They will definitely be the weakest team in their division, though.

Side Note: I loved how at the Draft Combine in 2006 Sean Payton asked Leinart, "So what's the deal with your posse?" Just goes to show you how Sean Payton builds a football team.

Tennessee (4-12)
It seems as if all offenses involving Vince Young do one of two things. Either he scrambles, or he makes poor throws and his receivers consistently make incredibly hard circus catches. I wouldn't be surprised at all if in the huddle before plays it sounded like this:

Vince: "Ok (insert name of terrible Titans receiver here), you are this piece of grass (pointing to a piece of grass), do this (moving the grass around with his finger) and I'll get you the ball, (turning to the line) you guys just block or something, (turning to other receivers) y'all just go deep."

Minnesota (4-12)
See: Kansas City and insert Tarvaris Jackson in place of Brodie Croyle.

Atlanta (4-12)
Believe it or not, this is a dream scenario for Bobby Petrino. He doesn't have to put up with Vick, and if Atlanta finishes last he can take his former QB, Brian Brohm. However, if this Vick ordeal has taught us one thing, it's that we can scratch his name off as a possible answer to the Baha Men's famous question of "Who Let The Dogs Out?"

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